When you need a precise file size
Single-pass CRF gives you a quality target with unpredictable file size. Single-pass bitrate gives you a target bitrate but the encoder allocates bits naively across the timeline (boring stretches get the same as action sequences). Two-pass gives you a target file size and intelligent bit allocation — pass 1 analyzes the whole clip, pass 2 encodes with that map.
Use two-pass when: uploading to a service with a hard size cap (Discord 25 MB, old social media), DVD/Blu-ray authoring, archival where you've decided 'this 2-hour show fits in 4 GB'.
The math
Target bitrate (kbps) = (target size in MB × 8192) ÷ duration in seconds − audio bitrate. Example: 25 MB cap on a 5-minute clip with 128 kbps audio: (25 × 8192) ÷ 300 − 128 ≈ 555 kbps video.