Essays
Long-form essays by C.W.K. — markets, AI, and the occasional aside on life. Newest first.
52 essays across 2 years
All essays · newest first
- The Market That Resets Every Morning and Remembers Nothing2026-02-14
- The Confirmation Paradox2026-02-12
- The Only Question a Rational Long-Term Investor Needs to Ask2026-02-11
- The Dopamine Tax2026-02-07
- Sisyphus Market2026-02-04
- The Market: A Dopamine Machine in a Suit and Tie2026-02-03
- The Fourth K Insight2026-02-01
- The Tragic Comedy of the "Rerun"2026-01-30
- How to Win Without Being Right2026-01-30
- Cao Cao Was a Genius (And Still Got Played)2026-01-30
- The Bully Clown and the Silly Villagers2026-01-22
- The Temporal Math of the "Lost Decade"2026-01-21
- The Mad King Problem2026-01-18
- A Confession of Fear — AI Boom, Shipyard Hopeium, and Honey-Butter Chips2026-01-17
- The Passive Lie2026-01-15
- AI Transition Trap2026-01-14
- Never-Befores: Cyclical Bubble vs. Civilizational Mispricing2026-01-13
- Hyperscale Dream: The Quadruple Bind — AI Wins, Investors Lose2026-01-09
- Capitulation of the Cautious2026-01-02
- The Oracle of Omaha Paradox2026-01-01
- The Wrong Hole2025-12-29
- The Only Winning Move2025-12-28
- The Overbuild Diaries Part II2025-12-27
- The Overbuild Diaries Part I2025-12-27
- CAPE at ~40: what it is, what it isn’t, and what it should change (now)2025-12-27
- The Expert’s Hedge2025-12-25
- Why “NVIDIA to $10T (and $20T/$30T)” Is Harder Than You Might Wish — A Simple Math Intuition Test2025-12-24
- The Berkshire Fortress - A Framework for Rational Survival2025-12-20
- Why Near-Term Market Predictions and “Strategies” Don’t Work for Genuine Long-Term Investors2025-12-16
- The Vanishing Point of Elegant AI2025-12-14
- Probability Isn’t the Villain. Misuse Is.2025-12-13
- When Even New Games Feel Like Traps - Soulsborne, Late Life, and the Vanishing Point of 12025-12-08
- The Great AI Subsidy: Why the Math Doesn't Math (Yet)2025-12-01
- The Ultimate Alpha - The Time Protocol2025-11-26
- INVESTMENT MEMORANDUM - THE LOGIC OF THE LONG GAME2025-11-26
- The Moral Hazard Casino - Why I Walked Away From the Table2025-11-24
- The Winter Is Coming2025-11-21
- The Seed Must Come From the Market2025-11-20
- The Silicon Furnace - Why You Can’t Subsidize Thermodynamics2025-11-19
- Wikipedia in a GPU Encarta World2025-11-18
- Berkshire Bought Google — And Why That Changes Nothing2025-11-15
- This Time Is Different?2025-11-15
- When BTFD Becomes Russian Roulette2025-11-14
- Riddle for LLMs2025-11-14
- Cash in an AI Bubble and Why I'm Sitting This One Out2025-11-13
- Bubble with Eyes2025-11-12
- When Investing Turns Into a Sport2025-11-10
- Buy the Business, Not the Mascot2025-11-09
- The Markets After the Red Wedding2025-11-08
- Liquidity’s Late-Phase Law2025-11-07
- The Folly of FOMO and the People Who Sell It2025-11-06
- When Numbers Break the Spell2025-11-03