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Lesson 05 of 07 · published

Black-Scholes — the shape only, no math

~30 min · black-scholes, concept

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The most famous formula in finance

In 1973, Fischer Black, Myron Scholes, and Robert Merton published a formula for European call options. It changed finance forever and won them the Nobel Prize (Black died before the award; Scholes and Merton received it in 1997). The formula is intricate. You don't need to memorize it. What you need is the picture and what it tells us.

The Black-Scholes formula (just to look at)

Where:

  • C = call price
  • S = current stock price
  • K = strike price
  • T = time to expiration (years)
  • r = risk-free rate
  • σ = volatility
  • N(·) = cumulative normal distribution

Stop. Just look. The formula combines lots of things you've already met: S/K (a ratio — numerator/denominator!), ln (natural log — Track 1 lesson 5), e^{-rT} (exponential discounting — Track 2 idea, just continuous), σ (volatility — Track 1 lesson 6 + Track 8 lesson 4), and N(·) (the normal distribution — Track 1 implicit, formal in advanced quests).

What it's actually computing: the option's price as the expected value of its payoff, averaged over a probability distribution of where the stock might end up at expiration, discounted to today. That's it.

The five inputs and what each does to call price

  • Stock price S ↑ → call price ↑ (more in-the-money territory)
  • Strike K ↑ → call price ↓ (less in-the-money)
  • Time T ↑ → call price ↑ (more chance for the stock to move)
  • Volatility σ ↑ → call price ↑ (more chance of big moves)
  • Rate r ↑ → call price ↑ (slightly — discounting effect on K)

For puts, S↑ and K↑ effects flip; T, σ, r effects on premium are similar in direction (puts also gain from σ).

The greeks — sensitivity measures

Each input has a "greek" that measures the option's sensitivity to it:

  • Delta (Δ): sensitivity to S. Roughly the probability the option ends in the money. Calls have delta 0 to 1; puts −1 to 0.
  • Gamma (Γ): sensitivity of delta to S. Curvature.
  • Vega: sensitivity to σ (lesson 8-4).
  • Theta (Θ): sensitivity to time. Usually negative for long options (time decay).
  • Rho (ρ): sensitivity to r. Usually small.

Professional options traders manage portfolios by greeks. Retail can ignore most of them; just know they exist and that "delta" and "vega" are the most-used.

Assumptions and limitations

Black-Scholes assumes:

  • Stock prices follow a continuous random walk (no jumps)
  • Volatility σ is constant
  • No dividends (extensions handle these)
  • Risk-free rate is constant
  • Option is European (exercisable only at expiration)
  • No transaction costs or taxes

Real markets violate every one of these. The formula is still useful as a benchmark, but the violations are why implied volatility isn't constant (the volatility smile from last lesson) and why exotic options need different models. The 1998 LTCM collapse (lesson 8-7) was partially Black-Scholes assumptions failing in extreme conditions.

The takeaway

Black-Scholes is the formal pricing model for European options. Five inputs (S, K, T, r, σ); each affects price predictably. Greeks measure sensitivity to each input. The math is elegant but assumptions are idealized. Real markets show smile/skew that B-S doesn't fully capture. You don't need the formula memorized; you need to know what it computes (expected payoff under a probability distribution, discounted) and what σ does (more σ = more premium). Most options thinking flows from this picture.

External links

Exercise

  1. Without computing: if a stock's σ rises (everything else constant), what direction does a call option's price move?
  2. Same question for an increase in time to expiration?
  3. If r rises, calls go up slightly. Why? (Hint: think about K e^{-rT}.)
  4. Why doesn't Black-Scholes fully capture real-world option prices, even though it's the standard model?

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