The bill has predictable shape
For most prompt-using systems in 2026, the cost is dominated by input tokens (because context is large), then reasoning tokens (when extended thinking is on), then output tokens, then everything else. Caching, model tier choice, and reasoning routing are the three biggest levers.
Levers in order of impact
- Prompt caching — 5–10× reduction on stable prefixes.
- Model-tier routing — send routine requests to mid-tier; reserve top-tier for hard ones.
- Reasoning budget routing — only enable reasoning when needed.
- Context trimming — RAG top-K tighter, document compression, dropping turns from history.
- Output discipline — schema-bound outputs are smaller than free-form ones.
- Provider competition — periodic comparison; switch where appropriate.
What not to optimize for
- Don't trade quality for cost without measuring the quality drop.
- Don't optimize average cost when tail cost is the issue (one slow long-context call drowns 1,000 cheap ones).
- Don't optimize cost without optimizing operational complexity.