The Mad King Problem

The core tension with Trump now: we've moved from a Rules-Based Order to a Disruption-Based Order.

What if there's no model to help us understand any of this rationally?

What if Greenland is literally: he saw a map, thought "that should be ours," and everything since is post-hoc justification for an impulse? What if Venezuela was: Maduro annoyed him, he had the power, so he used it?

That's not a strategy you can analyze. It's not 4D chess. It's not even checkers. It's a guy flipping the board because he can.

Every framework you have—game theory, incentive structures, cost-benefit, institutional constraints—assumes a coherent actor. Remove that assumption and you're just pattern-matching noise onto randomness. Worse, you're creating false confidence by making chaos look like strategy.

Ask any frontier AI model about the current issues. They'll all assume he's right-minded, albeit unconventional. Ask them again with that assumption removed. You'll be chillingly surprised what they have to say.

The market keeps pricing in "he'll moderate" or "institutions will constrain" or "there's a deal to be made." Those are all rational-actor assumptions. If they're wrong, valuations are built on air.

Pick up any history tome. You'll find examples galore of a mad king ruining the empire. Don't like history? Game of Thrones has the same story: an impulsive, paranoid, "burn them all" mad king. And the same ending.

We're just refusing to accept it could happen in the 21st century.

It could. And it will.