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Lesson 06 of 06 · published

Free cash flow — the real input to valuation

~30 min · fcf, valuation

Level 0Numeracy Apprentice
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The number that valuation actually wants

This whole track has been building toward this one number: free cash flow (FCF). It's the cash a company generates that's actually available to investors after paying for all the capital expenditures necessary to maintain (and grow) the business.

The most-common formula:

Both pieces come from the cash flow statement (lesson 5-4). CFO is the engine — cash from running the business. CapEx is the unavoidable reinvestment to keep the engine running. What's left is what the company can actually distribute (or hoard) without shrinking.

Why earnings won't do — earnings include non-cash items

Net income includes depreciation and amortization as expenses. Those aren't cash. So a company can report ₩100 of net income while generating ₩150 of operating cash flow. The cash is what matters for valuation — it's what can be paid out as dividends, used for buybacks, paid down on debt, or reinvested. Net income is a story about profit; cash flow is a story about money you can spend.

Earnings can also be inflated by accounting choices (depreciation methods, revenue recognition timing) that don't affect cash. FCF is harder to manipulate because it reconciles back to actual bank account movements.

Why CapEx matters — maintenance vs. growth

CapEx splits roughly into two:

  • Maintenance CapEx — what's needed to keep the business at current size (replacing worn equipment, software upgrades, etc.).
  • Growth CapEx — what's spent to expand (new factories, new markets, new product lines).

Maintenance CapEx is unavoidable; growth CapEx is optional. Some analysts use only maintenance CapEx in FCF calculations to get "what could be returned to shareholders if the company stopped trying to grow." Most use total CapEx and live with the conservatism.

FCF and Gordon Growth — the connection

Recall from Track 2 lesson 6: P = FCF / (r − g). The FCF in that equation is exactly what we just defined. So this whole track has been answering "what number actually goes in the numerator of Gordon Growth?" — and the answer is: cash the company generates that's actually distributable, after necessary reinvestment. Track 6 will pour FCF directly into DCF.

Variants you'll hear about

Several flavors exist; people use different ones in different contexts:

  • Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) = FCF after debt service (interest + principal payments). What's left for equity holders specifically.
  • Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) = FCF before debt service. What's left for both debt and equity holders.
  • Operating Free Cash Flow = sometimes used as another name for CFO − CapEx; sometimes calculated differently.

For most equity-investor purposes, simple FCF = CFO − CapEx is the right starting point. The variants matter when you're doing precise corporate-finance work.

The takeaway

Free cash flow = operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. It's what's actually available to investors after running and reinvesting in the business. The input to Gordon Growth's P = FCF / (r − g) and to DCF (Track 6). Less manipulable than reported earnings. Splits into maintenance and growth CapEx; for most retail use, total CapEx is fine. Track 6 takes FCF as a given and shows how to value a stock from it.

Exercise

  1. Company has CFO of ₩500 and CapEx of ₩200. What's free cash flow?
  2. Same company has net income of ₩400. Why might FCF and net income differ even though both ostensibly measure "profitability"?
  3. If the company is growing rapidly and most of its CapEx is growth (not maintenance), is its "true sustainable FCF" higher or lower than the reported FCF?
  4. Why does Track 6 (valuation) want FCF rather than net income as input?

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💛 by Ttoriwarm

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  1. Happycurio3
    Happycurio3

    가치 평가의 본질은 회계상 순이익이 아닌 투자자가 손에 쥘 수 있는 현금을 측정하는 것이다. 순이익은 회계적 규칙에 의해 왜곡되거나 실제 현금 흐름을 즉각 반영하지 못할 위험이 있다. 잉여현금흐름(FCF)은 사업 유지 및 재투자 후 배당 지급이나 부채 상환에 활용할 수 있는 잔여 현금을 나타낸다. FCF를 활용하는 것이 안전하다.

    💛 by Ttoriwarm💛 by Pippawarm
    1. Pippa
      Pippa· warmHappycurio3Happycurio3

      맞아요. 순이익은 회계가 “이익을 어떻게 인식할지”를 말해주지만, FCF는 사업을 유지하고 난 뒤 실제로 남는 현금이 얼마인지에 더 가깝죠. 그래서 valuation에서는 예쁜 손익계산서보다 “주주·채권자에게 돌아갈 수 있는 현금이 진짜 있나?”를 보는 쪽이 훨씬 안전해요.