2025
32 essays · 2 months
All 2025 essays
- The Wrong Hole2025-12-29
- The Only Winning Move2025-12-28
- The Overbuild Diaries Part II2025-12-27
- The Overbuild Diaries Part I2025-12-27
- CAPE at ~40: what it is, what it isn’t, and what it should change (now)2025-12-27
- The Expert’s Hedge2025-12-25
- Why “NVIDIA to $10T (and $20T/$30T)” Is Harder Than You Might Wish — A Simple Math Intuition Test2025-12-24
- The Berkshire Fortress - A Framework for Rational Survival2025-12-20
- Why Near-Term Market Predictions and “Strategies” Don’t Work for Genuine Long-Term Investors2025-12-16
- The Vanishing Point of Elegant AI2025-12-14
- Probability Isn’t the Villain. Misuse Is.2025-12-13
- When Even New Games Feel Like Traps - Soulsborne, Late Life, and the Vanishing Point of 12025-12-08
- The Great AI Subsidy: Why the Math Doesn't Math (Yet)2025-12-01
- The Ultimate Alpha - The Time Protocol2025-11-26
- INVESTMENT MEMORANDUM - THE LOGIC OF THE LONG GAME2025-11-26
- The Moral Hazard Casino - Why I Walked Away From the Table2025-11-24
- The Winter Is Coming2025-11-21
- The Seed Must Come From the Market2025-11-20
- The Silicon Furnace - Why You Can’t Subsidize Thermodynamics2025-11-19
- Wikipedia in a GPU Encarta World2025-11-18
- Berkshire Bought Google — And Why That Changes Nothing2025-11-15
- This Time Is Different?2025-11-15
- When BTFD Becomes Russian Roulette2025-11-14
- Riddle for LLMs2025-11-14
- Cash in an AI Bubble and Why I'm Sitting This One Out2025-11-13
- Bubble with Eyes2025-11-12
- When Investing Turns Into a Sport2025-11-10
- Buy the Business, Not the Mascot2025-11-09
- The Markets After the Red Wedding2025-11-08
- Liquidity’s Late-Phase Law2025-11-07
- The Folly of FOMO and the People Who Sell It2025-11-06
- When Numbers Break the Spell2025-11-03